Can the Oregon State Beavers get more out of DJ Uiagalelei than Clemson did? The Oregon State Beavers didn’t win the Pac-12 championship last season. They didn’t make the Pac-12 Championship Game. However, they did influence the Pac-12 race by knocking Oregon out of the Pac-12 title game and putting Utah in that final battle, which the Utes won over USC.
This season, Oregon State is a Pac-12 contender, but the Beavers need something very obvious to happen if they want to make a run at the conference championship. It will be fascinating to see what happens with Oregon State – not only as a point of curiosity in general, but because the Beavers are playing this season against the backdrop of the reality that they might not have a Power Five conference to play in next season. There is a chance that the Pac-12 will completely dissolve, and that Oregon State might have to go to the Mountain West Conference, something it definitely does not want to happen. Oregon State is not in control of its fate, a very uncomfortable place to be. We will see if the Beavers can win the last season of Pac-12 football before the various Pac-12 schools move to the Big Ten and Big 12.
Oregon State Beavers 2023 Futures
Odds To Win Pac-12: +1200 at Bovada
Odds To Win National Championship: +20000 at Bovada
Best Bet To Win Heisman
The most important player on the Oregon State Beavers is quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, priced at +10000 to win the Heisman Trophy. You probably know Uiagalelei’s story, but it’s worth sharing just to make sure. Uiagalelei grew up in Southern California but did not choose to go to USC or UCLA. He went to Clemson and wanted to be the next great quarterback for the Tigers, following in the footsteps of Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson. However, it didn’t work out. Uiagalelei had problems with his throwing mechanics. He went through some low-confidence periods in his Clemson career. The Tigers failed to make the College Football Playoff in each of Uiagalelei’s two seasons. Cade Klubnik, a freshman, clearly played better than Uiagalelei in the latter parts of the 2022 season. Uiagalelei could tell that his time was up, so he transferred to Oregon State.
The Beavers and head coach Jonathan Smith are betting they can fix Uiagalelei’s mechanics and make him into a great quarterback. If that transformation occurs, Uiagalelei could make a real run at the Heisman. Keep in mind that he has national name recognition from his multi-year Clemson career. He does not fit the profile of an Oregon State quarterback who is obscure and is only a West Coast personality. He’s a national figure who happened to move west to a Pac-12 program. If he puts up the elite numbers and leads Oregon State to the Pac-12 Championship Game, he will have a chance to win the award or at least become a Heisman finalist.
Pick: D.J. Uiagalelei
Best Player Prop To Bet
Jake Overman Receiving Yards
Oregon State loves to use tight end-oriented formations and run-heavy sets. Jonathan Smith loves the tight end position, often using tight ends as blockers in the running game. However, the tight end can present a run look only to become a pass catcher on a play-action sequence. Oregon State focuses on the run game and makes that the pillar of its offensive approach, but the tight ends can be very lethal as pass catchers who sneak out of the backfield and completely lose the linebacker who steps up into the tackle box to stop the run.
A few specific tight ends will be obvious selections for large numbers of passing yards. Consider – as a recent example – Kyle Pitts from Florida. He was technically listed as a tight end, but he played the game like a downfield wide receiver. He racked up a ton of yards at Florida a few years ago. Oregon State’s tight ends are not cut from that same kind of cloth. They are workmanlike players who usually don’t make plays down the field. However, Jake Overman could become the favorite target of D.J. Uiagalelei. If you see a receiving yards prop for Overman, it might be a very low number, which means the chances of going over the number are better than you might think. See if you can find a prop here and go over on Jake Overman’s receiving yards.
Pick: Jake Overman Over Receiving Yards
Regular Season Win Total
Oregon State has to play Utah, Washington, and Oregon, all very tough assignments for the Beavers. Utah, Washington, and Oregon all have high-level offenses and veteran quarterbacks who are coming back to play for one more season. It will be hard for this Oregon State defense to contain all three of those opponents.
Examining The Schedule
The one really good break for Oregon State on its 2023 schedule is that it does not have to play USC, the favorite in the conference. Utah, Washington, and Oregon all have to play the Trojans, so in that sense, Oregon State gains one game on the rest of the Pac-12 field.
Not playing USC means that if Oregon State can at least win one of the three games versus Utah, Washington, and Oregon, it should be able to win at least nine games this season and thereby hit the over on the 8.5 win total. The Beavers have a strong defense and one of the best offensive lines in the Pac-12. They have established a clear identity and know how to play within it. They have good running backs and tight ends and will play a physical style of ball which will frustrate a lot of their opponents. This is a difficult team to play against.
Outlook
Most of this roster is probably a nine-win roster. However, there’s that one problem left in the mix: D.J. Uiagalelei. Maybe he will figure it all out this year under head coach Jonathan Smith, but the extent of Uiagalelei’s problems with his mechanics and technique make it really hard to trust him and his evolution. If Uiagalelei does not develop this year at Oregon State, the Beavers are going to have a terrifically tough time against a very deep Pac-12.
Historically, the Pac-12 has not had three or four teams who could not only win the conference, but make a real run at the College Football Playoff, but this year is different. The Pac-12 is more loaded than it has been since either 2016 or 2014, the last two seasons when the Pac-12 placed a team in the playoff. Oregon State will be very good if Uiagalelei plays well, but this could get ugly if Uiagalelei struggles. You should probably lean to the under on the win total with the Beavers.
