The Texas A&M Aggies had a miserable 2022 season under head coach Jimbo Fisher. There is a ton of pressure on Fisher to right the ship this season and move the Aggies much closer to the hunt for a national championship. The Aggies might not get all the way to the top of the SEC, but they at least need to get close and show everyone that they will be ready to make a run at the title next year in 2024.
2023 Texas A&M Aggies Odds
Odds To Win SEC: +2000 at MyBookie Sportsbook
Odds To Win National Championship: +6000 at MyBookie Sportsbook
Best Bet To Win Heisman
Running back Rueben Owens is a spectacular five-star talent. He’s a freshman, and of course, people might express skepticism about the idea of a freshman winning the Heisman Trophy. However, Texas A&M fans know better than anyone else that it is possible for a freshman to win this most prestigious individual award. In 2012, A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel became the first freshman to win the Heisman. The very next year, Jameis Winston – coached by current A&M coach Jimbo Fisher at Florida State – won the Heisman. It can happen.
Devon Achane was A&M’s elite running back the past few seasons. Owens is in position to be that prime running back this year. If the A&M offensive line is able to do its job, Owens has a chance to turn in a huge season and significantly lift the Aggies.
Receiver Ainias Smith, who was injured last year, could also make a dark-horse run at the Heisman.
Also notable: Quarterback Conner Weigman is listed as a +4500 choice for the Heisman.
Pick: Rueben Owens
Best Player Prop To Bet
Conner Weigman Passing Yards
A listed total for Weigman’s passing yards hasn’t been provided, but if you see a number, go under the total. Weigman will be a game manager kind of quarterback as opposed to a daring and bold gunslinger who will let the ball fly down the field. The A&M running game needs to be a significant presence within the Aggies’ offense. For that reason, Weigman is not going to pile up the passing yards. He is unlikely to have very many games with 350 or more passing yards. He might get to 300 yards only if A&M trails opponents by large margins midway through games and has to throw on nearly every play in the second half of a game. For the most part, though, Weigman will throw short passes and try to function within a ball-control offense. He will throw for fewer passing yards than most people think.
Pick: Weigman Under Passing Yards
Regular Season Win Total
The win total has been set at 7.5 wins. The over is priced at -176, the under at +142.
The Aggies had a lot of injuries last season, a central reason why they didn’t make a bowl game and were one of the biggest disappointments in the country. It’s true that players don’t have a chance to fully develop when they’re hurt. However, the conversation is bigger and more complicated than just injuries. The Aggies also did not bring along their recruiting class, which was rated number one in the country. A&M was believed to have pulled off a true recruiting coup by grabbing players with better ratings than Georgia and Alabama. Yet, the performance on the field was nowhere close to the star ratings of the players who came to College Station last season.
One of the ways in which coach Jimbo Fisher has fallen especially short at Texas A&M is that he has failed to develop quarterbacks at a high level. Fisher developed Jameis Winston at Florida State, but since coming to A&M, he hasn’t had nearly the same success. Kellen Mond was erratic. Haynes King never really panned out. Now Conner Weigman is the signal-caller Fisher will try to lift to the next level. LSU transfer Max Johnson is waiting in the wings. It will be interesting to see if Fisher pulls a quick trigger in September should Weigman wobble. If he isn’t an excellent quarterback right out of the gate in 2023, Weigman could indeed be replaced by Johnson, and we could have a quarterback controversy on our hands.
The problems with the development of quarterbacks are related to the lack of development in the passing game. A&M lost several winnable games last season because it simply couldn’t create big pass plays to get vertical strikes and reduce the overall burden on the offense. A&M drives were long slogs. The Aggies weren’t able to shorten the field and reduce the overall number of plays on a drive because they lacked that vertical component in their offense. That has to change this year. The jury is still out and skepticism is entirely warranted for a coach (Fisher) who many think has lost his fastball and will never get it back.
Texas A&M Aggies 2023 Schedule
Let’s look at the schedule for Texas A&M. The Aggies visit Miami (Florida) early in the season. They beat the Hurricanes last year and will probably be favored to win again this year. However, the SEC schedule they have is brutal. They have road trips to Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU and they’ll be expected to lose all three of those games. They host Alabama. That is a game they will be picked to lose as well. If A&M does lose all four of those games, it will have to be a perfect 8-0 in its other games to go over the total. A&M might win a home game against Auburn and another home game versus Mississippi State. However, a home game versus South Carolina could be a problem for the Aggies. Also, the neutral-site game against Arkansas in Arlington, Texas is going to be a challenge.
This team is nowhere near a National Championship contender. If things go awry, they might not even be bowl-bound. Ultimately, it seems very likely the Aggies will lose four games, which means they have no margin for error with the over-under. Just one slip-up in a 50-50 game on the schedule will pull the team under. The best betting strategy here is the under.