How do you find value betting baseball totals? It’s no secret: professional sports bettors do a lot of shopping when it comes to finding the best possible lines. When it comes to betting on baseball totals a little shopping can go a long way towards making more money. The best sportsbooks will post identical lines early in the day. However, oddsmakers will make adjustments throughout the day too. As game time approaches, they can occasionally find different numbers on different sportsbooks. That begs the question: how and when do you get the best line with baseball totals?
Let's take a closer look at how to bet the right number when it comes to betting baseball totals.
Moneyline Will Move Before The Over-Under Number
The nature of baseball will usually lead to the sportsbooks adjusting the MLB odds. No line will open, not move and close on the same number. A common example of how things go is something like this.
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A total for a game opens at 9.5 and the sportsbook receives a ton of money on the over. Then they react to shift the odds for the over from -120 to -150. If enough money comes in, they will move the number from 9.5 to 10.0.
If money keeps coming in on one side, the sportsbook will try to slightly adjust the number in that direction in order to curb the amount of money on the one particular side. It's a matter of supply and demand. These situations are unique in that the number can be different from one sportsbook to another. Different shops have different action. That means it only makes sense to do the necessary shopping and compare the lines.
Remember To Line Shop
One of the most important things to remember when shopping for baseball totals is that just because one sportsbook adjusts their odds based on the action it receives doesn’t mean that every other sportsbook will follow suit. This could create the perfect opportunity to make some serious money.
If there is enough money on one side of a total that a sportsbook will shift its line, there is a good chance that money was put on that side based on some sort of inside information or advanced statistical analysis. In other words, if somebody is willing to risk enough money on a side to move the number at a sportsbook, it only makes sense that you might consider making the same bet if you can find the original number at another site.
The odds are actually in favor of finding the original number somewhere else. That's because the adjustments made to the initial lines are made on an individual basis rather than universally. With MLB, make sure that you shop around to find the right number.
Track The Line Movement
There's one other factor to consider when betting baseball totals. While the difference in the two totals is just a half-run, the bettor actually needs a difference of one full run to win the wager.
For example, if the line is moved from 9.0 to 9.5, anybody that wants to bet the under gains value. Meanwhile, everybody that wants to bet the over actually loses value since they can no long push on 9.0.
Now if the line is moved from 9.5 to 10 then the bettor would lose if the game falls on 9 and push if the game falls on 10. Since baseball is much lower scoring than football and basketball, the half run should cost a lot more than it does in other sports.
Betting on baseball totals can yield some significant profits. It's important to remember how to do it the right way. Make sure you take the time to shop for totals and find the best possible value out there to ensure you find the best possible numbers.
