The college football season moves into Week 7, and the Big 12 has a number of big games, especially one in Fort Worth, where TCU hosts Oklahoma State in a battle of two unbeaten teams both in the top 12 of the national rankings.
Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Longhorns
Odds: Texas -15.5
This is a game in which the winds have really shifted over the past month. Iowa State has lost some very tough games in recent weeks to Baylor and, this past weekend, to Kansas State in a one-point decision, 10-9. Texas looked really bad a few weeks ago but has gotten starting quarterback Quinn Ewers back into its lineup. Texas was okay with backup quarterback Hudson Card, but the Longhorns are noticeably stronger with Ewers under center.
Three weeks ago, this game might have been hard to call, and Texas might have been a three- or four-point favorite. Now, Texas is favored by nearly 10 points, and what’s more is that the Longhorns now have a much better chance of covering the spread than they probably would have a few weeks ago.
Pick: Texas -15.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned Frogs
Odds: TCU -3.5
This is the big one in the Big 12 this week. Oklahoma State and TCU have not lost, but they also haven’t beaten elite teams. Let’s be clear about TCU: The Horned Frogs beat Oklahoma at a point in time when Oklahoma wasn’t good and wasn’t playing at a high level. Beating Oklahoma is not an elite win in 2022 the way it would have been in 2021 or previous seasons. TCU beat Kansas last week, and although the Jayhawks were ranked at the time of the game, it remains to be seen just how good the Jayhawks will be at the end of the season. Therefore, it’s hard to say with total confidence that TCU is an elite team in and of itself. The Frogs are having a great season to this point, but so many questions remain. How will they fare against Texas? Kansas State? We don’t know. That’s why this game against Oklahoma State is so fascinating.
Oklahoma State faces many of the same questions TCU does, but OSU has at least beaten Baylor on the road. That’s a better-quality win than anything TCU has delivered so far this season. For that reason, Oklahoma State probably has a good chance of being able to cover the spread and, beyond that, win outright as well. OSU head coach Mike Gundy has been there and done that in the Big 12, while TCU coach Sonny Dykes is in his first year as a Big 12 head coach.
Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5
Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma Sooners
Odds: Oklahoma -9
The Sooners have been awful the past few weeks, so why are they favored by nearly 10 points? Simple: Starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel, injured the past few games, is back in the starting lineup for the Sooners. There is an expectation that the Oklahoma offense will roll, and that’s probably true. However: Oklahoma’s defense is still a total mess, and that still has to be sorted out. Kansas can probably cover the spread.