Betting on underdogs can be quite profitable in baseball. In the majority of the major professional sports, the best sportsbooks are able to do a pretty good job when it comes to balancing out the action on both sides of the ball. However, Major League Baseball games have provided some difficult challenges. That's because the games breed more parity than in other sports. That presents sports bettors with the opportunity to make some serious money betting on the underdogs.
Here are three important tips to keep in mind for finding quality MLB underdogs.
Plenty Of Parity
One of the most important things to remember when it comes to betting on baseball is the fact that there is much more parity than in other sports. The best way to break down the difference between these sports is by comparing the differences between the best and worst records in the NFL, NBA and MLB. The NFL’s best team usually finishes around 13-3 or better while the worst teams often finish 3-13 or worse. That is a difference of 10 wins and over such a short season it creates a major disparity.
Editors' choice: top sportsbook.
In the NBA, the top team usually wins around 60 games while the worst clubs have consistently finished with 20 wins or fewer. Over the course of an 82-game season, that difference is magnified even more.
Meanwhile in MLB, the best team normally wins around 100 games while the worst club still finishes with around 60 wins, which is a difference of around 40 games. The fact that the scheduling size is so different in baseball than in football or basketball makes the disparity that much greater. The underdogs still tend to win more often than the NFL and NBA underdogs.
Dogs Bar More Than In Other Sports
It’s important to remember that just because MLB underdogs tend to win more than in other sports, it doesn’t mean you can simply bet on them blindly and expect to turn a profit.
A seven-year study on betting the MLB odds showed that the underdogs produced a 6,917-9,6744 record in baseball games. That would result in a net loss of minus-153 betting units if you simply took them blindly. Betting underdogs blindly still produced better results than betting favorites blindly in terms of the profit margin. That's because the hit that players would have taken losing juice betting on favorites was significantly more than they would have lost betting on underdogs.
Despite that baseball favorites still win 57-percent of the games, the underdogs provide that smarter route to making money just based on the betting odds.
Underdogs Cash About 43% Of The Time
The fact that the underdog will win 43-percent of the time presents a unique opportunity for baseball betting fans. If 43-percent of the underdogs in a given week come out on top, it shouldn’t be difficult for baseball fans to identify 5-6 games where they feel like the underdog has the best opportunity to come out on top. Just keep in mind you have to factor the juice at all the books like BetUs, BetNow and Bovada (Bovada review).
There is no way simple strategy on its own that will guarantee you will make a profit betting on baseball. However, if you stick with the smart underdog plays, that's already a good start. Then layer in additional information to breakdown the best bets and you'll gain a significant edge betting on baseball.
