Basketball has a lot of rules in place to try to maintain a level of parity. That makes the NBA one of the most popular sports in the world to bet on. There aren’t a lot of betting systems that work beyond pure, statistical analysis. There are plenty of NBA betting myths out there that simply aren’t true. Nonetheless, there are definitely some that are worth remembering. Here is a look at three NBA betting myths that are actually true.
Betting On Preseason Underdogs Works
Preseason betting is usually more risky than most other leagues. That’s because there are so many young players and draft picks that we haven’t seen much out of. Teams that finish at the bottom of the league get a tremendous advantage when it comes to selecting the top picks. With a strong focus on those players early in the preseason, it usually gives them an advantage.
Also, remember that sportsbooks like MyBookie, BetOnline and any other book worth their salt will have Summer League lines. That means you can bet and watch the players progress well before preseason.
Expert handicappers will usually adjust their systems to account for the talent differential in the preseason. Teams that have highly-touted rookies and depth with good young guys will thrive. By focusing on the underdogs, you can probably gain a significant edge on the best sportsbooks.
Relative Team Strength Is Key
While you can evaluate teams based on offense and defense in the NFL, NHL and even in the MLB, the best approach in the NBA is measuring relative team strength. This is among the common NBA betting myths.
Offense and defense don’t matter nearly as much because of relative team strength. You always want to make sure you are basing your evaluations on key players and how teams perform overall. The best defensive team in the NBA could really struggle to slow down a powerhouse offensive team. You don’t want to be caught betting on the better defense when their statistics should be irrelevant based on relative team strength.
The Lower Ranks Can Be Favored
The statistical analysis on the NBA shows that betting against teams that are lower ranked at the end of the season delivers profitable advantages. It shouldn’t be a surprise. Teams at the lower end of the table go all out in the majority of their games. Ultimately, there will be games where they just don’t have a chance. That doesn’t mean they won’t keep the score closer than expected on occasion. That it why it is worth favoring the lower ranks and keeping a close eye on whether or not a team is likely to produce a strong game or struggle.
Teams won’t purposely tank but a lower seed that is matched up with a higher seed in the midst of a long and difficult road trip could really be outmatched and end up being blown out. It makes sense to favor the lower ranks in situations where those teams have a real chance to grind out a win. Just make sure you aren’t taking the Philadelphia 76ers when they are matched up with a powerhouse team like Golden State.