Betting System: Finding Value With Baseball Home Underdogs

Betting Sites » Betting Strategy » Betting System: Finding Value With Baseball Home Underdogs

You often hear amateur bettors compare how many correct predictions they made on any given night but you don’t always hear them talk about how much money they won. Have you ever thought about why that is? Which is more important?

When it comes to sports betting, the bottom line is making money, so whether you get five out of six right or nine out of 10 right, all that matters is the money that you walk away with.

It would be better to get six out of 10 straight underdog bets right and make a profit than it would be to get nine out of 10 right on a parlay and walk away with nothing.

The key is to make sure that you are consistently making a profit and that brings us to the perfect system for winning percentage versus betting units won.

What Is The Betting System?

Think about a major corporation like Wal-Mart. The company doesn’t bother being too selective and worrying about pulling out big gains at once. Instead, they have a high volume at low prices with the expectation that the more people buy the bigger the profit they will be able to pull out.

The baseball season is the perfect time to take a similar approach with so many games and so many underdog teams available to bet that can pull out wins and help the bottom line.

Bovada Review
5.0 rating
Bovada Bonus: $750 In Free Bets
T&Cs Apply
New customers only

Please see Bovada’s General Rules for full Terms and Conditions, which apply to any and all promotions from Bovada.
BetUS Review
5.0 rating
BetUS Bonus: 125% up to $2500
Editors' choice: top sportsbook.
T&Cs Apply
New customers only

Please see BetUS’ General Rules for full Terms and Conditions, which apply to any and all promotions from BetUS.
MyBookie Review
5.0 rating
2022: MyBookie Bonus: 100% Deposit Match Up To $1000
T&Cs Apply
New customers only

Please see MyBookie’s General Rules for full Terms and Conditions, which apply to any and all promotions from MyBookie.

The worst team in baseball still won 60 of its 162 games a year ago and while you might want to stay away from the team at the very bottom there are teams that win 70-80 games each year that are often available at a very good price. The approach is simple: Identify teams that range from average to very good and bet them as home underdogs.

Even when you lose you will not pay juice and you should win more often that you lose regardless. The key is to get a high volume of home underdog bets at plus-odds in favorable situations and grind out a profit.

What Are The Numbers?

The Colorado Rockies finished 26 games below .500 in 2022 but posted a 41-40 record at home and were a betting underdog in a lot of those games. While it didn’t make any sense to touch them on the road, they were an excellent play at home the majority of the time.

The Arizona Diamondbacks were similar as they finished 14 games under .500 overall but 40-41 at home. The numbers alone indicate that you would have made a profit and you can always add to that the ability to break down the individual match ups.

Sports Betting System Verdict

It’s always important to take in to account the bottom line over win percentage as the only number that matters at the end of the day is how much you have won.

Getting nine of 10 right on a parlay isn’t nearly as good as getting seven out of 10 straight underdog bets right at plus money and it’s important to understand the difference.

Betting the home underdogs in baseball gives players an excellent chance to improve their bottom line a little at a time and it makes more sense to grind out a profit that way than always aiming for the big win via parlay and missing out.