Is betting baseball favorites risky? One of the biggest keys to winning money by betting on sports is to be able to change once you realize you have made a mistake. The bettors that get in to a habit of doing things they shouldn’t be doing often have a difficult time turning things around or breaking out of those bad habits.
One area that most sports betting fans tend to get caught is not betting on baseball favorites. That's because of an old theory that it is not a profitable venture. The recent numbers show that trend has changed and that it actually does make sense to wager on them.
Here is a look at how to bet on the big baseball favorites.
The Numbers
We now have ample data to work with to see whether betting big favorites make sense. We took one sample from the year 2004 to 2015 to see.
The bettor that risked $100 betting on every favorite of -200 or more in that span would have won 2,000 plays. At the same time, they would have lost 904. That translates to a 68.9% success rate. That would have led to a loss of $6,309 due to the MLB odds. That's because of the tremendous juice it costs betting on favorites. The fact that the bettor would have won nearly 70% of the time and still lost thousands should be alarming. It led to many handicappers avoiding the favorites altogether.
However, the big baseball favorites turned the corner from 2012 to 2015. In that period, they posted a ridiculous 527-193 record that resulted in a profit of $8,931. That's for anybody that bet $100 on every favorite of -200 or more. The returns for the 2014-15 season included $6,500 of that money. It signaled a strong shift in baseball that was reflected in the betting numbers.
Using The Run Line
The majority of handicappers prefer to use the run line betting strategy. That's when they back big favorites with a chance to lay 1.5 runs. In return, they lay much smaller odds. Between 2012 and 2015, those playing large favorites on the run line would have posted a 391-329 record. That would have resulted in a profit of $5,043. That is actually less money than they would have won if they simply bet on the favorites to win on the moneyline. A trend that once seemed like a good idea is no longer as wise as it once was. The numbers indicate it simply doesn’t make sense to use the run line anymore.
Outlook
The fact that the favorites have done so well from 2012 through 2015 is a sign that it now actually makes more sense to bet on big baseball favorites than it did before. Unlike in the past years when the majority of information indicated it didn’t make sense, sports betting handicappers can now bet with confidence understanding that they can make a substantial profit in doing so.
The full slates of games almost every night provides plenty of opportunities to bet on baseball. Based on the numbers, it clearly makes sense to stick with the big baseball favorites on a consistent basis and see how things play out.
