The majority of sports betting tipsters online will promise high strike rates that will help you win a fortune. If it really was as easy as taking somebody’s advice, there would be a lot more millionaires around the world.
While the promise of winning big is extremely alluring, it’s important to remember that if the picks were that good in the first place, tipsters likely wouldn’t need to sell them. That being the case, you have to be careful whenever you’re buying picks.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the numbers. When it comes to picksters, tipsters and touts, the numbers can lie. They often do a good job of misrepresenting to make it seem like they’re always winning. What you need to do is separate the authentic winners from the misleading salesmen. Here’s how to evaluate betting tipsters.
The Records Of Betting Tipsters
The most important aspect of evaluating a tipster is to figure out what their record is. You have to understand how to properly evaluate it.
The majority of tipsters will have their record listed in terms of units rather than the amount of winners that they predicted. That’s a key differentiator. The majority of tipsters use the t-distribution model that is similar to the bell-shaped normal distribution. A return of 120% from 100 wagers at odds of 10.00 or longer is most likely to be consequence of luck. Same returns from betting odds-on prices is an indication of skill.
This means that while the sports betting tipsters have specific records listed not everything might be what it seems on the surface. One thing to keep an eye out for is the number of years the tipster has had a surface available. The longer they have been there, the more likely that their record will provide a strong indication of what to expect from them than somebody with a smaller record that hasn’t been around.
Watch Out For Misleading Records
When it comes to records, those who are transparent are the ones you want to deal with. The ones who are not are the ones you must avoid.
With touts, you’ll often see different time frames. “Won seven of the last nine!” “Nine straight college basketball winners!” or “Cashed seven straight 5* predictions!”. What does that mean? Do they have one 5* pick per month and win those, but are 2-20 with everything else? And if they’re doing well in college basketball, what about the rest?
The handicappers that let you see everything under the hood are the ones that are trustworthy. That means if they show you a history of tracked picks, a full log, an easy-to-understand record, then you know you’re dealing with someone honest. If someone is advertising 90% win rate and won’t show you what you need, you want to avoid them.
Long vs. Short Odds
It should be clear that the long and short odds can impact a tipsters record in terms of their units won. Comparisons of betting histories that consider only percentage returns as is common when ranking tipsters can be a little bit misleading. When you take in to consideration the betting odds, the scores that tipsters can produce for their overall records could look a lot different than what they actually are.
For example, let’s say they’re using Bookmaker as their main sportsbook and are only betting on NFL. If they’re 50-30 and all of the lines are -110, that’s one thing. If they’re using a low juice book and their record is 50-30 at -105 lines, that’s even better.
Now let’s say that you’re betting on baseball and they’re still advertising a record of 50-30. What if they were laying -200 on every line? Obviously, that’s a bit of a stretch but we’re just trying to make a point. A record of 50 wins and 30 losses would be a losing record.
The odds can have a major impact on the outlook of a betting tipsters record so keep in mind the different tactics they can use to adjust their numbers.
Should You Pay For Picks?
While the betting tipsters can be relied on to get a different perspective, it simply doesn’t make sense to trust their picks without consideration for the different factors that can be involved. The length of a tipster’s record combined with the way they calculate their success rate has to be taken in to account when it comes to whether or not you trust them to give you picks.
The best tipsters in the world will still be limited with the number of winners they pick. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t need your money because they would already all be millionaires based on their own sports betting success.
It’s important to take a measure of caution when it comes to using betting tipsters. It can be part of your betting strategy but it’s likely not something you can solely rely on.