Does the Christmas System work for NBA betting? There is no such thing as a sports betting system that guarantees a winner every single time. However, if there is a system with the potential to improve the chances of a bettor making a profit, it only makes sense to give it consideration.
A fairly old NBA system has recently made a comeback. According to some people, it produced winners over 60-percent of the time last season. It's called the Christmas system, although with a couple of subtle changes, that have been made in order to improve its efficiency when it comes to predicting winners.
Here is a look at the Christmas System and whether or not it is worth it for NBA fans to try it out.
The ‘Christmas' System
The strategy was given the name Christmas System. That's because it originally was based on the numbers calculated throughout the first 25 games of the season. That's roughly how many games the majority of teams play before Christmas. The first system begins with taking the winning percentage of each team and subtracting the lower winning percentage from the higher winning percentage.
For example, if the Los Angeles Clippers have a .750 win percentage and the Minnesota Timberwolves have a .450 winning percentage, the difference is .350. Once the initial calculations are made you can drop the decimals to make it easier. In this instance, the differential for this game is 300. The second step is to divide the percentage differential number by 20. In this case, we will divide 300 by 20 for a total of 15. This means that the rough line when the Clippers host the Timberwolves should be Los Angeles -15. That number can be adjusted by three points in the favor of the home team.
Next, subtract the points spread from the favored team and if the difference is greater than 10 points than you would have a viable play. If the number is less than 10, then you can pass on that game and bet on another. In this case, the Clippers would have to be favored by five or less in order for them to be a viable play.
Choosing The Right Underdogs
The second part of the system is a little bit more complicated because it expands to involve picking underdogs. The first step is the same as you take the winning percentages and use 20 to divide them. For example, if the New York Knicks had a .400 win percentage and the Los Angeles Lakers had a .320 winning percentage, then you take the difference and divide it by 20.
The negative differential can make it a little more complicated. However, the same general theory applies after factoring in the home court advantage. If the Lakers are listed to cover by 4+ points at home, then you bet them to win and cover. If they are listed to cover by 3 or less then you avoid them as an underdog play altogether.
A Useful Tool For Betting The Holiday Season
These betting systems might seem a little complicated at first glance. However, they are very easy to learn and grow comfortable with in a short period of time. It is important to remember that there is no such thing as a system that guarantees winners. This isn’t what that is.
However, the Christmas system can still serve as a useful tool to help breakdown NBA games on a big day. It is worth trying out to see if you can use it to help gain an edge when betting on basketball.
