One of the most difficult obstacles that sports bettors have a tough time dealing with is the idea that the same systems and trends will last forever. They hope to always be able to go back to what has worked for them. The problem is the constantly changing sports landscape. There will always be different trends and changes. If bettors aren’t able to identify them they won’t be able to take advantage. One system that has crashed over time is the NBA road team on back-to-back system.
The betting against road teams on the second of back-to-back nights was a successful system for a long time. It was mostly successful throughout the 30 years that the numbers were recorded from 2001-10. The only problem was that some handicappers couldn’t believe that the trend would ever change. They invested too heavily in it thinking that it wouldn’t falter. That’s not exactly smart.
As is the case with any system, it’s important to use it as a handicapping tool rather than as an absolute game predictor. Ultimately, things change. The game changes, sportsbooks adjusted and factors are different. So how can you expect a system to work on the best betting sites forever?
How It Works
The system is exactly what its title insinuates: bet against teams that are playing the second of back-to-back road games in two nights. The idea was that the teams that had played the night before in another city would be exhausted by the time they took to the floor for the second road game. Remember, they aren’t as rested and they might not be able to keep up with the rested home team.
The numbers indicated this trend worked. Moreover, the results were even better if the travelling team covered as a road favorite the night before. The home team would want to have a strong performance in front of their home fans. They would also have the advantage as the rested squad with the crowd support behind them.
While the general perception is that the more tired team would be in over their heads in the second of back-to-back road games in as many nights, the numbers tell a much different story.
Over a recent two-year span in the NBA, the road favorite playing the second of back-to-back games actually posted a 58-42-1 record against the spread. That completely contradicts the foundation for this system.
The statistics actually support the idea that players are better off betting on the road favorite in the second of back-to-back games.They were covering the spread; not failing to do so. Even then this seems like a risky proposition. However, the bottom line is that the game has changed. The lack of parity means that the best teams are able to win more games regardless of the situation. The difference in how tired a team is or how much they have been forced to travel isn’t nearly as important.
Keep in mind that flights are faster now and technology has improved. With better nutrition too, the fatigue of a back-to-back doesn’t hit like it used to.
Stick to what works when betting on NBA favorites. When it comes to betting on road favorites in the second of back-to-back road games, stick closer to the teams and other relevant statistics. This system is no longer relevant.