Every sports bettor is looking for an edge and when it comes to betting the NFL they certainly need every tip they can get in order to beat the the best sportsbooks. Experts have spent decades trying to come up with the perfect NFL betting system and while every single one of them has its flaws, they can also be very useful as well.
The Point Differential System can take up a lot of time to execute but it is also one of the most accurate systems out there when it comes to breaking down the offensive and defensive strengths of a team. It can then spit out a representative number that helps compare them against the rest of the league.
With that in mind, what are the details of the Point Differential System and does it actually return a profit in terms of betting the point spreads? Let's take a closer look.
What’s The System?
This system takes a lot of time to make work but the benefits make it worth it if you follow the necessary steps.
- First, you list all of the opponents the road team has played and the number of average points scored and allowed per game by each team.
- Second, you add the opposition’s average points for and the points allowed and divide by number of games played. This gives an average number of points scored and an average number of points allowed by the road team’s opposition.
- Third, you divide the team’s points scored by the average points allowed by the road team’s opposition.
- Fourth, you divide the road team’s points allowed by the average points scored by the road team’s opposition.
Once you are finished doing all four steps for the road team, you go through the same process for the home team making sure you don’t miss a step.
After that is done we can move on to the fifth step, which is to list all of the home team’s opponents. The sixth step is to add up all of the totals and divide by the number of games played in order to get the average number of points the home team has allowed this season. The seventh step is to divide the home team’s average points scored by the average number of points allowed by opponents to get a final number which represents how the home team offense has performed against the league average.
Finally, the eighth step is to divide the number of points the home team has allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored to get the number that represents how the home team defense has performed against the league average.
100 is the league average for breaking down how teams perform on both sides of the ball. If the final number for a team on offense is 115, then that offense is performing 115-percent better than the league average based on the opponents they have faced.
However, while a number above 100 is a positive for the offense, it is regarded as a negative on defense where anything lower than 100 is above the league average. For example, if a team hit 97 on defense than they are actually slightly better than the league average based on the opposition they have played. Now that we have these numbers we can move on to the final steps.
After you get the average offense and defense numbers for both teams the next thing you do is add the road team’s offensive number to the home team’s defensive number and divide by two, then add the home team’s offensive number to the road team’s defensive number and divide by two.
Next, you add the road team’s points scored to the home team’s points allowed and divide by two and then add home team’s points scored to the road team’s points allowed and divide by two.
You then multiply the road team’s base offensive number by its performance figure and subtract 1.5 points for the fact that they are playing on the road while doing the same thing for the home team only adding 1.5 points for the fact that they are playing at home.
What Are The Results?
The final number that you arrive at will represent the final game score. For example, if the final number for the home team is 31.20 and the final number for the road team is 24.20, then the predicted score is 31-24 and the projected spread based on that calculation should be 7.
While the actual totals can vary slightly depending on the game this system has proven time and again to be very accurate in predicting winners. Time and again this system has proven to pick winners and that is why players have dedicated the time to implementing it.
While it may be too time consuming for some players it is definitely worth trying out for those that have the time to properly go through the steps and evaluate the numbers over the span of at least a couple of weeks.
It may seem overwhelming at first, it’s very easy to get used to the process once you do it the first few times and once you do get the hang of it you will have another excellent betting tool at your disposal.
Although the casual player won’t have the time to do this math for every game, this is still a good system that can give a dedicated sports handicapper an edge over time.