Betting rested road favorites in the NFL has proven to be quite profitable. The NFL bye week was designed to prolong the regular season and boost revenues for the league. Perhaps what is most interesting is the perspective it has given bettors and how they have created systems and angles to take advantage of every team’s week off.
The bye week is an excellent opportunity for players to rest and recover from nagging injuries while coaches have that much more time to game plan for their next opponent. All of that has a clear effect on the team’s ensuing game. That is something bettors have attempted to take advantage of with the NFL Rested Road Favorite system. Are they onto something with this betting strategy? We're taking a closer look.
What’s The System?
There are two obvious situations when a team should be a road favorite. First, when they are one of the league’s elite team’s playing against an average team. Second, when they are an average team playing one of the worst.
You can usually find at least one of those games every week, and when you factor in what we talked about above with the extra preparation time you get a situation where a team should really benefit.
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This is where the NFL Rested Road Favorite system comes in to playas it makes a lot of sense to bet the road favorite in these situations. It doesn’t matter whether the home team is also coming off a bye week.
All that matters is that the road team is the favorite and is coming off a week off. In this situation, you will have an edge both against the spread and straight up.
What Are The Results
The numbers from a 10-year study betting only road favorites coming off a bye proved the edge this system provides as road favorites covered at a 74.5-percent rate.
Those numbers can be further broken down in to four quadrants based on actual spread from those games as road favorites coming off a bye that were favored by 10 or more points covered at a 66-percent rate while teams in the same situation that were favored by 6-9.5 points covered at an 87.5-percent rate – the highest percentage of the four groups.
Even more important was the numbers from that study in the three most recent years as the road favorites coming off a bye week combined to cover at an 81.5-percent rate and more specifically, teams in that situation that were favored by 6-9.5 points covered 100-percent of the time.
Verdict
The numbers support the notion that the NFL Rested Road Favorite system works. If a player blindly put their money down on the point spread on every single road favorite coming off a bye over the past five years, they would have hit at an 81.5-perent clip. That's well above the average numbers from some of the best betting systems.
The fact that there are only so many instances where this situation occurs limits how many times you can make this play but the fact that the success rate is so high means that you can feel confident putting more money down on it. Overall, the NFL Rested Road Favorite system is the perfect way to maximize your wager and make a big score at different points throughout the NFL season.
