The majority of public bettors tend to stick with betting on favorites when it comes to baseball with the hope that they can pick enough winners to make a substantial profit. However, what the public bettors doesn’t realize is that the juice that they lose when those favorites lose is such a large amount. It becomes so much more difficult to make a profit betting on favorites than it would be betting on underdogs.
The sharps understand this concept and that is why the majority of them stick with a much different view when it comes to handicapping games. Here is a look at the most profitable underdog betting system.
Bet Underdogs Early In The Season
One of the best times to back the underdogs is early on in the year when the sportsbooks are still adjusting to new rosters. This is the only time of the season when all 30 teams are actually in the mix – at least on paper. For example, by the time that June rolls around in baseball, the best sportsbooks already have a pretty good idea of which teams are good and which teams are not and will have adjusted the lines.
Over the last 10 years, underdogs in the month of April have hit at a 44.5% win rate. When you factor in that the return on each of those plays is plus-money, it’s clear that if you bet on underdogs in the month of April you likely emerged with a significant profit.
Bet On Small Road Dogs Early
Another important aspect to consider when it comes to the most profitable underdog betting system is the early season road underdog situations.
Road underdogs listed anywhere between +100 and +150 coming off a loss with a losing overall record against a team with a winning record have won exactly 50% of the time over the last 10 years. That means if you bet on these teams blindly with zero consideration towards the pitching matchups, batting orders, defense and ballpark you still would have made a profit. Some trends don't hold much water but there is clearly something in the water with this one.
The addition of your own betting knowledge of the sport including additional factors that could have an impact would only help you to make an even bigger profit betting these underdog plays.
Bet On Home Dogs In Divisional Matchups
One more aspect to consider when betting on baseball underdogs is the numbers that division underdogs have put up over the years. While there are 30 teams in Major League Baseball, division games make up just about half of each team’s schedule, which is basically 76 games per year.
Home underdogs have thrived versus division opponents over the years. Teams with .500 records have had just as much success as teams with .440 records even though the odds will change depending on a team’s position in the standings.
Home underdogs are often strong plays in baseball but this is particularly true when it comes to division games.
Bet Home Dogs After They Score 10 Or More
Another situation you want to keep an eye out for is teams that are underdogs after they score 10 runs or more the previous night. Those teams have won their next game 44% of the time over the last five years so it is clearly worth backing them with the potential to make some serious money.
The most profitable underdog betting systems are usually based on Major League Baseball, so make sure you do your research and capitalize on the best opportunities out there.