Regression towards the mean is a popular concept in sports betting strategy as well as in life in general. The term simply refers to the idea that things tend to even out over time. Or, at least, gravitate in the direction of an even split.
The concepts can be applied in business, psychology and even genetics. We will use them in order to gain an edge when it comes to betting on sports too. Here are some important tips to keep in mind when it comes to regression towards the mean in sports betting.
Explaining Regression To The Mean
If a team with a .500 record in baseball at the All-Star break wins eight games in a row coming out of the break, the regression towards the mean would point towards the team likely going 2-10 over their next 12 games in order to push them back towards .500. There is a reason the team was .500 at the All-Star break so it only makes sense that they are bound to cool off following an extended hot streak.
At least, it is much more likely that the team will cool off a bit. After that, it is that they will continue to play that much better than their .500 record at the All-Star break would indicate. Knowing this can help you bet their MLB odds properly.
Players Versus Team Regression
There is a major difference between regression towards the mean with teams and with players and it’s important to understand the differences between the two. It’s much more difficult for an entire team to maintain a peak performance over an extended span than an individual player but eventually both are due to slow down. There is also an obvious connection between the two sides in that if an individual superstar is due to slow down then it should also mean that their team could slow down as well as a result.
For example, if LeBron James dominates throughout the course of an eight-game win streak and he is clearly the biggest reason why they are winning then there should be an understanding that his eventual slowing down could lead to the Cleveland Cavaliers cooling down as a team. The results can vary depending on the sport and how much the outcomes rely on individual stars so keep in mind that no sport is the same.
Keep Track Of Streaks
If you have bet on sports for long enough, you should have a pretty good idea of what regression to the mean is. However, beginner bettors can enhance their experience by doing the necessary research and using online resources in order to gain an edge.
Sports sites keep tracks of winning and losing streaks and depending on the path a current team is on you can usually expect a measure of regression towards the mean. You can also use your own judgment to decide on which way a team is likely to go based in large part on their record. A good team on a cold streak is that much more likely to heat up while a bad team on a hot streak is that much more likely to cool down. The concepts of regression towards the mean aren’t difficult to understand and once you learn how to use them, you can really gain an edge at the best betting sites.