There are plenty of reasons why football sharps make a lot more money betting on the NFL than the casual fans will. The majority of their ability comes from their awareness of how sports betting works and why it makes sense to go against the grain.
Here is a look at three important NFL tips that the football sharps don’t want you to know about.
Bet On NFL Preseason
The NFL exhibition games are typically ones that the casuals look past. How could one handicap a game when the starters aren’t even playing, right?
The reality is that sharps love to get involved in preseason action because they can get an edge on the oddsmakers. If you’re the type of bettors that’s plugged in, it’s not hard. With the preseason action, you need to know depth charts. If your team has a good starter and two backups who have made starts before in the NFL, that’s a good depth chart. Someone like Case Keenum or Josh McCown might not be a great regular season starter. However, in preseason action, against second or third-stringers, they can move the ball. The same goes for running backs and wide receivers. You want to see the depth charts and see who has an edge.
Next you’ll also want to look at the coaching trends. Sharps used to have an edge there but now these are all out in the open. Some coaches care, some don’t and some try only certain weeks. That again can give you an edge. And if you’re plugged in on Twitter and follow team reports, you’ll know how snaps are being divided before the oddsmakers do.
Sites like Bookmaker, BetOnline and BetUS stay on top of the news. They open lines early but the lines are often soft. This is why sharps like the preseason. They can beat those lines.
Follow The Public Money
One of the most important things to do when betting on the NFL is to follow where the public money is going. The best sportsbooks design their spreads in order to account for where the public money is going. That’s in an effort to make sure there is as close to an even split on both sides of any given wager as possible. However, the movement at the specific sportsbook will help you know if it’s sharp or public money.
For example, if the Baltimore Ravens are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Ravens are initially listed at +1.5 at Bovada. Let’s say the line then moves to Baltimore +2.5. That is a sign that the public money is on Pittsburgh because Bovada takes a lot of public action. The move from 1.5 to 2.5 isn’t significant enough to ignore that the public is on the Steelers but you want to keep an eye out for key numbers.
The public also tends to bet late rather than early. If you see line moves early in the week, that’s sharp money. If you see it 10 minutes before kickoff, that’s more public money. And the public likes their big brands. They’ll bet the Dallas Cowboys or Tom Brady or whoever else the talking heads at ESPN will pick. Sharps are more into totals and matchups that fly under the radar.
Following The Sharp Money And Reverse Moves
If you are keeping a close eye on where the public money is going, it is that much easier to figure out where the sharp money is. The best way to do it track the sharp sportsbooks.
For example, if we use the same scenario where the point spread moved from Baltimore +3 versus Pittsburgh and it happened at Pinnacle, that’s sharp money making that happen. That’s especially the case if it happened right after they opened the line. Sportsbooks like BetOnline, Bookmaker, Pinnacle, The Greek back in the day, Circa all take money from football sharps. A lot of the onshore books nowadays don’t, so if you see their lines move, it doesn’t mean that it’s sharp action.