The first four weeks of the NFL season always fly by. While the weather for the month of September is fairly calm, that changes as the season progresses. From the Frozen Tundra in Green Bay to the snowstorms in Pittsburgh, there is bound to be cold temperatures and plenty of snow.
Those weather conditions have a major impact on the actual game play and one concept that has emerged over the past couple of years is that the extreme cold weather leads to higher scoring games. That seems counterintuitive as you’d think bad weather means under, right?
Let’s take a closer look at how cold weather impacts over-unders and how you should bet them.
What’s The System?
In a recent weather-based stats breakdown the numbers showed that weather has a major impact on the outcome of games with 32 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degrees Celsius as the prime cutoff line. Whether it’s the snow slowing down a defense that has trouble reacting or the cold keeping players from closing down with big tackles it has been proven that the cold weather conditions lead to higher totals in NFL games.
The betting strategy behind this system is to find games played in colder conditions and simply bet the OVER, and the stats taken from over the years prove it to be a successful method.
What Are The Numbers?
According to the numbers over a five-year span, those that bet the OVER in all games played in freezing conditions (32F/0C) would have posted a 63-40-1 record. Keep in mind that the only factor for that number is the temperature with no adjustments made depending on the teams that are playing. The fact that the OVER hit at a 60-percent rate regardless of the teams, lines, and other relevant attributes means that bettors would have hit above the average and made money by following this system regardless of whether or not they even understood the game of football.
According to the stats recorded, the rate of success for the OVER improves as the temperatures decreased. For the games that were played in temperatures below 29 degrees Fahrenheit or -2 degrees Celsius the OVER hit at a 44-27-1 mark or 61.9-percent success rate.
For games that were played at temperatures below 19 degrees Fahrenheit or -7 degrees Celsius the OVER hit at a 17-7 mark or 71-percent success rate. 32 degrees is the benchmark number for creating a profitable margin but the likelihood of the OVER continues to increase as the recorded temperatures get lower.
The fact that a casual observer could make a profit betting on the OVER for games played in freezing temperatures regardless of any other input whatsoever is the perfect litmus test for determining that this is a successful system and a trend worth monitoring.
Football fans have the ability to apply their own knowledge to this system in order to try and fine tune the numbers. However, the fact that they can make a profit just betting based on the game time temperatures makes this something that all players have to remember as the weather starts to change.
There are only so many games every season that are played at freezing temperatures so it’s important to capitalize on them when they happen. And while this system is simple, you can try out other, more complex ones, like the NFL point differential system.