The home field advantage is something we hear about all of the time in sports. When it comes to the NFL, it’s important to break down what it is and how much it means. While those making the lines in Las Vegas will assign roughly three points or so to the team that is at home, the actual value changes depending on everything from where the game is played to the time of day it is played.
We took a random four-year sample of the data to see if there was an edge for those who bet on football. The sample taken was from 2006-10 and this is what we found.
The Evidence For This NFL betting system
The home advantage made sense from a number of different perspectives including the environment, fans, and noise levels when a given offense is on the football field. There is also an advantage for teams that have a roster built around a strength that plays to the conditions of their field. For example, think of a high-flying pass offense that plays indoors on turf. Or a team that favors tough defense and a strong run game playing outdoors on grass. However, the biggest factor appeared to be the times and the travel required for the game. In particular, the west coast teams traveling to the east coast.
According to the numbers, teams from the NFC West went 23-29 against the number versus teams that play on the east coast while teams from the AFC West went 28-38 against the number against teams on the east coast.
Anybody that bet against teams from the NFC West and AFC West alone would have gone 67-51 against the spread and that is based solely on the home field advantage without factoring in anything to do with the quality of the actual teams playing.
West Teams Struggle Going East
Teams that play in the NFC West and AFC West struggled in situations where they were forced to travel. On top of that, there was an even bigger disparity when it came to the teams that are based in Pacific Time zones. The Las Vegas Raiders, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks are the four teams that play in the Pacific Time zone. Those teams combined for a 20-35 record in games played in the East time-zone. Once again a player that considered factors such as the quality of the teams playing, injuries, the actual spread number.
Other elements could potentially improve the number of wins they posted by including their own research in to their bets. However, based on the time zones alone, without any other factors included, a player could blindly bet the east coast teams in these situations. Had they done so, they would have posted a 35-20 win rate.
This sports betting system makes a lot of sense. There are plenty of factors that go in to picking winners but the correlation between teams on the east coast beating teams from the west coast when they have the home advantage over the years it’s too strong to ignore. Breaking down the other factors that determine the outcome of these games is an excellent way to improve the success rate betting NFL football. However, it’s important to start with the east coast home advantage when predicting match ups and picking winners.
The home field advantage is something we hear about all of the time in sports. When it comes to the NFL, it’s important to break down what it is and how much it means. While those making the lines in Las Vegas will assign static numbers between two and four to every spread based solely on the team that has home field, the actual value changes depending on everything from where the game is played to the time of day it is played. We took a random four-year sample from 2006-10 and this is what we found.