One of the most overlooked aspects of successful sports betting is to understand the importance of tracking closing lines. The importance of evaluating your performance against the closing odds can provide some key insight that could help to put you over the top in the sports betting forum. Did you bet too early and get a worse price? Did you bet late and find that you got a better line as a result? This is important to track so that you can get a better understanding of the market, the movement and timing.
The first step the sportsbooks take when setting a line for a specific event is to set the opening odds based on statistical analysis of the team’s past performances, factoring in any other relevant information that could impact the outcome of the event including injuries and other factors.
Once the odds become available, the players bet on the markets they consider the best value. This second step is important because it results in the sportsbooks then adjusting their numbers based on how their odds are perceived on the market.
The best sportsbooks don’t want to receive too much exposure. They will adjust their odds in order to make sure they get as much action on both sides as possible. The odds released just before a game are called closing lines.
The closing lines reflect all of the statistics, news, injuries, wagering activities and the market sentiment. The closing line is the most efficient point of the market. Therefore, it is the most accurate representation of what to expect.
Positive Expected Value
In order to most accurately predict the results of sports betting events, the top handicappers identify bets with positive expected value. These are bets that have a bigger chance of winning than the odds indicate. Here is a look at the formula that is used to calculate the probability of making a profit on a given event:
(Amount of Bet) x [(Odds for X -1) x (probability for X) – 1 x (probability for Y)] =
According to this formula, you take the amount you will bet and multiply it by the odds for one result minus one, then times it by the probably for one result. Take that number and subtract the probability for the second result and you will have your number.
If the expected value is a positive number, betting on this market will likely result in making a profit. If the expected value is a negative number, betting this market is more likely to end with a negative outcome.
Efficient Market Hypothesis
According to the efficient market hypothesis, the closing odds are on average more accurate than the opening odds when it comes to predicting how an event will play out. The efficient market theory is used in the financial markets to dictate efficient markets. It also works when it comes to predicting sports events. There is no such thing as a guaranteed outcome in sports. However, the probability models help to improve the odds of making a profit.
Smart sports bettors will use these numbers in order to both use the closing odds as a guide and beat the closing odds by making a profit. Consistently beating the closing odds is an important factor when it comes to betting on sports. Make sure you keep track of the numbers in order to accurately evaluate your wagers.