Sports Betting System: The Logic Behind Hedging Playoff Series Bets

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The beginning of the regular season is usually a time when most NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB fans want to get in on the betting action. It's understandable: we're welcoming back the various sports after long offseason periods. However, one of the best times to bet is at the beginning of each league’s “second season” as the playoffs get underway.

Betting on a playoff series before it begins creates the opportunity to get a jump on a favorable hedging situation. The majority of series still remains to be played and as the teams progress, there could be value with the adjusted odds. You can get in on the action at any time so if you register a bet on the team that takes the early series lead then you will have an opportunity to implement the Hedging Playoff Series system. You have to know what you're doing, though, because betting mistakes can be made where your hedge can go the other.

What’s The System?

The Hedging Playoff Series system is based on the idea that if you bet on a series before it begins, there are potential situations where you could end up making a profit regardless of the actual outcome. The key is to identify the underdogs that have the best chance of taking an early series lead. Then when they do, you will then have the opportunity to hedge the bet and make a profit regardless.

Let's look back to one of the baseball's all-time examples of this: the 2014 American League Championship Series.

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The players that bet the Kansas City Royals to win the ALCS before the series began got that line at plus-money since the Royals were underdogs. After Kansas City won the first two games in Baltimore the series odds had been adjusted enough to make the Orioles major underdogs.

At this point any player that had bet the Royals would have the opportunity to hedge their bet and place a small wager on Baltimore to come back and win the series at plus-money. That isn’t to say that they would have to bet the Orioles and Kansas City did go on to sweep the series.

The point is that implementing the Hedging Playoff Series system by betting the Royals as underdogs before the series started. Then betting Baltimore as underdogs after game two would have guaranteed that the player made a profit on the series props.

What Are The Numbers?

Any player that had used the Hedging Playoff System exclusively betting underdogs in every series that Kansas City had played in these playoffs would be 3-0 in terms of opportunities to hedge their three series in order to guarantee a profit.

The Royals opened their ALDS against the Los Angeles Angels as underdogs then swept the series and then opened the ALCS as underdogs against the Orioles only to register another sweep.

The public finally came around to the fact that Kansas City was good enough to win the World Series and they were listed as slight favorites heading in to it but after a 7-1 loss in game one the odds were quickly adjusted and once again a player that placed their initial bet on the underdog San Francisco Giants heading in to the series would have had a chance to hedge their bet and guarantee a profit.

The numbers for this system will vary depending on the individual player and the underdogs they initially bet on. This system is much more difficult when it comes to betting the favorite and trying to hedge with the underdog at a good enough price to guarantee a profit but it’s not impossible either. The key is to find value before a series begins and remain aware of how the odds change as it progresses in order to find the favorable opportunities. 

Verdict

The Hedging Playoff Series system is only as effective as the judgment of the player that uses it as they are the one that determines which teams to bet on ahead of the series and when the right time is to hedge the bet.

This system is very useful for players that have a strong understanding of the league they are betting on and know when the time to make their move is. And remember, this doesn't work when it comes to betting the playoffs in the NFL because their showdowns are one game. The MLB, NBA and NHL have seven-game series.

Players should take advantage of the strategy behind the Hedging Playoff Series system but make sure they don’t get carried away and bet with the mindset that every underdog will win the series opener and create the opportunity needed to really capitalize.